CardiffNorthampton

Cardiff v Northampton result

Full-time · Cardiff 5–1 Northampton

League One ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Cardiff · Northampton

The model’s pre-match pick

Cardiff 5–1 Northampton — Cardiff won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.1% of 273 landed (95% range 73.9–83.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Cardiff beat Northampton 5–1 in League One on Saturday 25 April. Cardiff are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Northampton are winless in their last 14 matches in all competitions.

The goals

Cardiff led 3–0 at half-time. The goals — Cardiff: Ollie Tanner (9’, assisted by Christopher Willock; 54’), Joel Colwill (19’, assisted by Rubin Colwill), Callum Robinson (37’) and Yousef Salech (86’, assisted by Callum Robinson); Northampton: Jake Evans (68’, assisted by Nesta Guinness-Walker).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ollie Tanner’s goal on 9 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Cardiff 3.73, Northampton 1.01, from 25 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

E. Duckworth showed two yellow cards — against 3.0 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Cardiff: Alexander Robertson (74’); Northampton: Samuel Hoskins (42’).

What it changes

Cardiff stay second after this result (45 league matches played).

Northampton stay 24th after this result (44 league matches played).

Cardiff’s four-goal margin was the biggest of round 45, across 12 matches. Cardiff have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nesta Guinness-Walker (Northampton) 12.1, Ollie Tanner (Cardiff) 9.4 and Callum Robinson (Cardiff) 9.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Cardiff to win, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 79.1% of the time in the last 90 days (216 of 273).

Next up

Cardiff next host Burnley on 7 November 2026.

Northampton next travel to York on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Cardiff: Norwich v Cardiff, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Northampton: Salford City v Northampton, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Cardiff 5–1 Northampton · League One
  • Referee: E. Duckworth
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Cardiff 1 · draws 0 · Northampton 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Cardiff 3W 2D 0L · Northampton 0W 0D 5L

Cardiff 5–1 Northampton (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 0.63
Goals
against 0.63 / 2.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
9.38 / 4.63
Corners
against 3.88 / 6.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.88 / 2.5
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2
Cards
against 1.25 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3 yellows
Referee · E. Duckworth
21.45 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameCardiff for / againstLineNorthampton for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 0.63 against n 8
2.5standard
0.63 for · 2.25 against n 8
Corners won
9.38 for · 3.88 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 6.63 against n 8
Shots
21 for · 10.38 against n 8
19.5standard
8.75 for · 16.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.88 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
2.5 for · 5.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.38 for · 7.25 against n 8
21.5standard
12.38 for · 10 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: E. Duckworth — 3 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 21.45 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Cardiff

Cardiff Goalkeeper

Cardiff — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Trott45904050 min1092.4 /90471 /9000 /90
Cardiff — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Trott n 890
2.65/3

Cardiff Defensive

Cardiff — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Joel Bagan48813896 min801.8 /90310.7 /90170.4 /901904.4 /90340.8 /9090.2 /90
P. Ng36802875 min672.1 /90270.8 /90120.4 /901815.7 /90351.1 /9050.2 /90
D. Lawlor30782350 min240.9 /90281.1 /90240.9 /90903.4 /90190.7 /9060.2 /90
C. Chambers27822211 min291.2 /90341.4 /90170.7 /901084.4 /90210.9 /9050.2 /90
R. Wintle42853572 min441.1 /90451.1 /90170.4 /901233.1 /90180.5 /9060.2 /90
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Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joel Bagan n 878.1
0.94/2
0.73/2
N. Guinness-Walker
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
—
R. Wintle n 889.1
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
C. Willock n 847.3
14/0
0.52/0
S. Hoskins
Cian Ashford n 867
00/0
1.35/3
—
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Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joel Bagan n 878.1
27/4
R. Wintle n 889.1
1.36/1
C. Willock n 847.3
0.52/0
Cian Ashford n 867
1.25/2
P. Ng n 890
1.87/4
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Cardiff Attacking

Cardiff — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Salech34722445 min140.5 /9040.1 /90792.9 /90331.2 /90281 /90140.5 /90
C. Robinson32391255 min70.5 /9020.1 /90312.2 /90201.4 /90130.9 /90100.7 /90
R. Wintle42853572 min10 /9070.2 /90260.7 /90130.3 /90451.1 /90100.3 /90
C. Willock42582455 min80.3 /9060.2 /90321.2 /90150.5 /90562.1 /90391.4 /90
Cian Ashford39652533 min50.2 /9030.1 /90361.3 /90190.7 /90301.1 /90491.7 /90
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Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joel Bagan n 878.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Wintle n 889.1
1.67/3
0.84/1
C. Willock n 847.3
1.24/1
0.52/0
Cian Ashford n 867
27/3
0.84/1
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Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joel Bagan n 878.1
00/0
0.11/0
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
R. Wintle n 889.1
00/0
0.42/1
C. Willock n 847.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Cian Ashford n 867
0.21/0
0.21/0
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Northampton

Northampton Defensive

Northampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Campbell n 874.5
0.85/0
0.85/0
—
T. Taylor n 879.3
1.36/3
1.16/2
—
S. Hoskins n 862
1.36/1
0.73/1
C. Willock
N. Guinness-Walker n 874.1
1.46/2
0.92/2
Joel Bagan
T. Fornah n 858.6
0.63/0
1.34/2
—
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Northampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Campbell n 874.5
2.47/4
T. Taylor n 879.3
1.66/4
S. Hoskins n 862
0.52/1
N. Guinness-Walker n 874.1
2.77/7
T. Fornah n 858.6
13/1
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Northampton Attacking

Northampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Campbell n 874.5
0.52/1
00/0
T. Taylor n 879.3
0.63/1
0.11/0
S. Hoskins n 862
0.72/2
0.52/1
N. Guinness-Walker n 874.1
0.21/0
00/0
T. Fornah n 858.6
0.21/0
00/0
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Northampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 22 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Campbell n 874.5
00/0
00/0
T. Taylor n 879.3
00/0
00/0
S. Hoskins n 862
0.21/0
00/0
N. Guinness-Walker n 874.1
00/0
00/0
T. Fornah n 858.6
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CardiffNorthampton
73%Possession27%
3.73Expected goals (xG)1.01
25Shots10
11Shots on target5
6Shots off target0
8Blocked shots5
18Shots inside the box3
3Corners2
1Offsides0
12Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Saves6
657Passes234
90%Pass accuracy75%

Cardiff Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
H. Tyrer9000000007.3
R. Kpakio9000100506.9
W. Fish9000001006.9
D. Lawlor9000000107.5
Joel Bagan9000007208.3
C. Robinson9011312209.2
D. Turnbull8700221107.6
O. Tanner6520321108.9
C. Willock6501225007.2
J. Colwill5510221007
R. Colwill5501213107
A. Robertson sub35000001Y6.2
Y. Salech sub3510111007.2
O. Kellyman sub2500100106.5
I. Davies sub2500001006.5
R. Tankiewicz sub30000000–

Northampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Burge9000000007.3
C. McCarthy9000000206.3
M. Dyche9000001105.7
J. Guthrie9000110105.6
N. Guinness-Walker9001002707
C. McGeehan9000110206.3
T. Fornah8100000005.9
D. Campbell8000000006.3
S. Hoskins66001121Y6.9
K. Simon-Swyer4500000106.5
J. Vale4500002106.2
E. List sub4500110006.2
Kyle James McAdam sub4500000406.2
J. Evans sub2410110007.5
T. Taylor sub1000000006.7
M. Jacobs sub900000106.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Cardiff v Northampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CardiffDWDWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
NorthamptonLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.8 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Cardiff 1 · 0 draws · Northampton 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2025-11-22 Northampton 1–3 Cardiff
  • 2020-09-05 Northampton 3–0 Cardiff
League standing · 2025/26
Cardiff#2 pos91 pts46 pl+40 GD
Northampton#24 pos35 pts46 pl-35 GD
Goals per game
Cardiff scored1.96
Northampton scored0.85
Cardiff conceded1.09
Northampton conceded1.61

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Cardiff v Northampton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Cardiff v Northampton was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Northampton?
In their last 2 meetings, Cardiff won 1, Northampton won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Northampton?
Recent form — Cardiff 3W 2D 0L; Northampton 0W 0D 5L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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