ArsenalBurnley

Arsenal v Burnley result

Full-time · Arsenal 1–0 Burnley

Premier League · · Emirates Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arsenal · Burnley · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arsenal 1–0 Burnley — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78.5% of 279 landed (95% range 73.3–82.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 178 of 266 times (66.9%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Arsenal: 1.23 to 0.19 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 5, ahead on xG from the 13th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal beat Burnley 1–0 at Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Monday 18 May. Arsenal have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Arsenal led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Arsenal: Kai Havertz (37’, assisted by Bukayo Saka).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kai Havertz’s goal on 37 minutes.

Discipline

P. Tierney showed four yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Arsenal: Kai Havertz (67’); Burnley: Hannibal Mejbri (28’), Zian Flemming (90+1’) and Lucas Pires (90+4’).

What it changes

Arsenal stay first after this result (37 league matches played). Arsenal have scored 71 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Arsenal have conceded 27 goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs.

Burnley stay 19th after this result (37 league matches played). Burnley have scored 38 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Burnley have conceded 75 goals, the most of the 20 clubs.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. Burnley are winless in their last 12 matches in all competitions. Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) 7.2, Declan Rice (Arsenal) 5.0 and Cristhian Mosquera (Arsenal) 4.2 led the match.

Head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Burnley, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Arsenal to win, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Burnley next travel to Cardiff on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Burnley: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arsenal 1–0 Burnley · Premier League
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium · London
  • Referee: P. Tierney
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arsenal 4 · draws 2 · Burnley 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arsenal 4W 1D 0L · Burnley 0W 1D 4L

Arsenal 1–0 Burnley (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 0.63
Goals
against 0.63 / 2.13 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 3.88
Corners
against 3.75 / 6.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 2.75 / 6 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 1.63
Cards
against 1.88 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.15 yellows
Referee · P. Tierney
20.15 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 13 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameArsenal for / againstLineBurnley for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 0.63 against n 8
3.5our book
0.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 3.75 against n 8
9.5standard
3.88 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
13.38 for · 11.25 against n 8
19.5standard
9.5 for · 18.13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
8.5standard
3.38 for · 6 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.5 for · 11.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.38 for · 9 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1 against n 8

Referee: P. Tierney — 3.15 yellow cards a game, 0.15 red cards, 20.15 fouls over 13 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya49904410 min931.9 /90300.6 /9000 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga990807 min212.3 /90101.1 /9000 /90
Robert Sánchez19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
25/3
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 889.6
2.66/4

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães47823865 min541.3 /90290.7 /90561.3 /902205.1 /90310.7 /9050.1 /90
William Saliba45863859 min551.3 /90260.6 /90120.3 /901804.2 /90390.9 /9030.1 /90
J. Timber41763129 min832.4 /90290.8 /9060.2 /901805.2 /90451.3 /9060.2 /90
Piero Hincapié33742436 min662.4 /90341.3 /90140.5 /901435.3 /90210.8 /9030.1 /90
Riccardo Calafiori31662042 min421.9 /90221 /9050.2 /901305.7 /90331.5 /9070.3 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Martín Zubimendi n 862.8
1.47/1
0.94/1
—
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.54/0
—
Declan Rice n 886.8
15/3
0.32/0
L. Ugochukwu
Viktor Gyökeres n 875.6
1.96/5
2.17/5
—
Gabriel Magalhães n 890
0.96/1
16/1
M. Estève
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 862.8
3.47/4
Declan Rice n 886.8
1.86/4
Viktor Gyökeres n 875.6
0.11/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 890
17/1
William Saliba n 890
1.56/4
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Viktor Gyökeres49683319 min210.6 /9030.1 /90681.8 /90371 /90310.8 /90100.3 /90
Bukayo Saka44693037 min110.3 /9060.2 /90672 /90451.3 /90852.5 /90641.9 /90
Leandro Trossard42632658 min70.2 /9080.3 /90511.7 /90220.7 /90451.5 /90341.2 /90
Gabriel Martinelli35571980 min100.5 /9050.2 /90421.9 /90221 /90301.4 /90391.8 /90
Noni Madueke34581963 min60.3 /9030.1 /90311.4 /90180.8 /90371.7 /90512.3 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 862.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Declan Rice n 886.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 875.6
1.97/3
14/1
Gabriel Magalhães n 890
0.63/2
0.32/0
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 862.8
00/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Declan Rice n 886.8
00/0
00/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 875.6
0.63/1
0.11/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 890
00/0
00/0
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Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Dúbravka35903150 min1273.6 /90712 /9000 /90
M. Weiß590450 min142.8 /9081.6 /9000 /90
Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Dúbravka n 890
3.27/5
M. Weiß n 590
2.82/2

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Estève35873035 min401.2 /90421.2 /90331 /901404.2 /90150.4 /9010 /90
K. Walker33882909 min521.6 /90431.3 /90100.3 /901314.1 /90311 /9090.3 /90
Q. Hartman23872010 min572.6 /90361.6 /9050.2 /90763.4 /90130.6 /9010 /90
H. Ekdal20861718 min281.5 /90120.6 /90140.7 /90934.9 /9080.4 /9010.1 /90
B. Humphreys19851613 min281.6 /90100.6 /90181 /90734.1 /90140.8 /9060.3 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
0.54/0
—
M. Estève n 888
0.53/1
00/0
Gabriel Magalhães
J. Anthony n 888.4
0.63/1
16/2
—
K. Walker n 884
0.85/1
0.74/1
—
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
0.85/0
0.63/1
Declan Rice
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Estève n 888
1.36/2
J. Anthony n 888.4
1.36/4
K. Walker n 884
2.16/5
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
1.66/3
J. Laurent n 859.5
2.16/3
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Tchaouna26511336 min30.2 /9000 /90191.3 /90100.7 /90110.7 /9090.6 /90
Z. Flemming25701759 min100.5 /9000 /90381.9 /90221.1 /9090.5 /9050.3 /90
L. Foster25571435 min20.1 /9030.2 /90130.8 /9060.4 /90110.7 /90100.6 /90
J. Bruun Larsen23481101 min00 /9030.2 /90121 /9050.4 /90161.3 /90131.1 /90
Marcus Edwards18661190 min10.1 /9030.2 /90131 /9060.5 /90211.6 /90181.4 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
00/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888.4
1.57/4
0.96/1
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
00/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888.4
0.11/0
0.11/0
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ArsenalBurnley
60%Possession40%
1.29Expected goals (xG)0.19
13Shots5
3Shots on target0
7Shots off target4
3Blocked shots1
9Shots inside the box2
3Corners3
1Offsides0
7Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Saves2
513Passes336
87%Pass accuracy79%

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
David Raya9000000006.9
Cristhian Mosquera9000001407
William Saliba9000000007.3
Gabriel Magalhães9000100107.2
Declan Rice9000000508.2
Bukayo Saka9001201507.3
Martin Ødegaard8900001007
Leandro Trossard8900201007.2
Eberechi Eze7300321007.2
K. Havertz73102130Y7.6
Riccardo Calafiori7200003007.3
Piero Hincapié sub1800000106.7
Myles Lewis-Skelly sub1700000006.6
Viktor Gyökeres sub1700000106.7
Martín Zubimendi sub10000000–
Gabriel Martinelli sub10000000–

Burnley Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Weiß9000000007.3
K. Walker9000000206.7
A. Tuanzebe9000000006.3
Lucas Pires90000003Y6.6
J. Anthony9000100106.2
Z. Flemming90000012Y6.3
M. Estève8200000407.2
L. Tchaouna8200002006.3
Florentino7800100306.9
L. Ugochukwu7100000207.2
H. Mejbri70002011Y5.9
Zeki Amdouni sub2000000006.7
J. Laurent sub1900000306.6
J. Ward-Prowse sub1200000006.7
B. Humphreys sub800000006.6
J. Bruun Larsen sub800000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arsenal v Burnley — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ArsenalWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 1.4 scored / 0.2 conceded per game
BurnleyLLLLD
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.8 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arsenal 4 · 2 draws · Burnley 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2025-11-01 Burnley 0–2 Arsenal
  • 2024-02-17 Burnley 0–5 Arsenal
  • 2023-11-11 Arsenal 3–1 Burnley
  • 2022-01-23 Arsenal 0–0 Burnley
  • 2021-09-18 Burnley 0–1 Arsenal
  • 2021-03-06 Burnley 1–1 Arsenal
League standing · 2025/26
Arsenal#1 pos85 pts38 pl+44 GD
Burnley#19 pos22 pts38 pl-37 GD
Goals per game
Arsenal scored1.87
Burnley scored1
Arsenal conceded0.71
Burnley conceded1.97

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Arsenal 1.23 xG from 13 shots, Burnley 0.19 from 5. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Eberechi Eze 53' · 0.11 xGMartin Odegaard 36' · 0.10 xGBukayo Saka 59' · 0.07 xGHannibal Mejbri 26' · 0.07 xGEberechi Eze 54' · 0.07 xGKai Havertz 30' · 0.06 xGEberechi Eze 28' · 0.06 xGKai Havertz 13' · 0.06 xGLeandro Trossard 87' · 0.05 xGBukayo Saka 12' · 0.05 xGLoum Tchaouna 10' · 0.05 xGBukayo Saka 43' · 0.04 xGFlorentino Luís 2' · 0.04 xGLeandro Trossard 14' · 0.04 xGHannibal Mejbri 56' · 0.02 xGGabriel 10' · 0.02 xGJaidon Anthony 50' · 0.02 xGKai Havertz 36' · 0.50 xG · goal
Arsenal (attacking right)Burnley (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Arsenal1311.23
Burnley500.19

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Arsenal led on xG, 0.92 to 0.16. At full time, Arsenal led on xG, 1.23 to 0.19. The widest gap was 1.04 xG to Arsenal, in the 87th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.20.600′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Arsenal 36 min
Arsenal 1.23 xGBurnley 0.19 xGdots = goals · 18 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arsenal v Burnley?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arsenal v Burnley was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Burnley?
In their last 6 meetings, Arsenal won 4, Burnley won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arsenal and Burnley?
Recent form — Arsenal 4W 1D 0L; Burnley 0W 1D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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