BurnleyAston Villa

Burnley v Aston Villa result

Full-time · Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa

Premier League · · Turf Moor

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Burnley · Aston Villa · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa — this Premier League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Burnley 1.72, Aston Villa 1.75 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Burnley and Aston Villa drew 2–2 at Turf Moor in the Premier League on Sunday 10 May. Burnley are winless in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Burnley: Jaidon Anthony (8’) and Zian Flemming (58’, assisted by Hannibal Mejbri); Aston Villa: Ross Barkley (42’, assisted by John McGinn) and O. Watkins (56’, assisted by E. Martínez).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Zian Flemming’s goal on 58 minutes.

Discipline

A. Taylor showed two yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Burnley: Zian Flemming (60’); Aston Villa: Tyrone Mings (49’).

What it changes

Burnley stay 19th after this result (36 league matches played). Burnley have scored 38 goals, the second-fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Burnley have conceded 75 goals, the most of the 20 clubs.

Aston Villa stay fifth after this result (36 league matches played). Aston Villa have scored 56 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Aston Villa have conceded 49 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Ross Barkley (Aston Villa) 6.5, Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley) 6.0 and Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) 5.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

Aston Villa are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Burnley.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Aston Villa, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (989 of 1452).

Next up

Burnley next travel to Cardiff on 7 November 2026.

Aston Villa next travel to Manchester United on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Burnley: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Aston Villa: Manchester United v Aston Villa, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa · Premier League
  • Venue: Turf Moor · Burnley
  • Referee: A. Taylor
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Burnley 1 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 4 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Burnley 0W 0D 5L · Aston Villa 2W 0D 3L

Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 2.13
Goals
against 2.38 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4.63
Corners
against 6.25 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 6 / 4.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.13
Cards
against 1.13 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.36 yellows
Referee · A. Taylor
21.32 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 22 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBurnley for / againstLineAston Villa for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 2.38 against n 8
2.75our book
2.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
4.13 for · 6.25 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 4.13 against n 8
Shots
9.13 for · 17.88 against n 8
19.5standard
11.38 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
3 for · 6 against n 8
8.5standard
4.88 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 9.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: A. Taylor — 4.36 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 21.32 fouls over 22 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Burnley

Burnley Goalkeeper

Burnley — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Dúbravka35903150 min1273.6 /90712 /9000 /90
M. Weiß490360 min92.3 /9061.5 /9000 /90
Burnley — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Dúbravka n 890
3.27/5

Burnley Defensive

Burnley — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Estève34872945 min401.2 /90401.2 /90321 /901404.3 /90150.5 /9010 /90
K. Walker32882819 min481.5 /90411.3 /90100.3 /901264 /90301 /9090.3 /90
Q. Hartman23872010 min572.6 /90361.6 /9050.2 /90763.4 /90130.6 /9010 /90
H. Ekdal20861718 min281.5 /90120.6 /90140.7 /90934.9 /9080.4 /9010.1 /90
B. Humphreys19851613 min281.6 /90100.6 /90181 /90734.1 /90140.8 /9060.3 /90
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Burnley — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
0.54/0
—
M. Estève n 888
0.64/1
0.11/0
E. Konsa
J. Anthony n 888.8
0.53/1
0.95/2
M. Rogers
K. Walker n 884
0.74/1
0.53/1
E. Konsa
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
15/1
0.52/1
—
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Burnley — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Estève n 888
1.36/2
J. Anthony n 888.8
1.36/4
K. Walker n 884
1.65/4
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
1.46/2
J. Laurent n 859.5
2.16/3
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Burnley Attacking

Burnley — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Tchaouna25501246 min30.2 /9000 /90181.3 /9090.7 /9090.7 /9080.6 /90
Z. Flemming24701680 min90.5 /9000 /90351.9 /90211.1 /9090.5 /9050.3 /90
L. Foster24591414 min20.1 /9030.2 /90130.8 /9060.4 /90110.7 /90100.6 /90
J. Bruun Larsen23481101 min00 /9030.2 /90121 /9050.4 /90161.3 /90131.1 /90
Marcus Edwards18661190 min10.1 /9030.2 /90131 /9060.5 /90211.6 /90181.4 /90
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Burnley — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
0.11/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888.8
1.97/4
0.96/1
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
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Burnley — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Burnley before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Dúbravka n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Estève n 888
00/0
00/0
J. Anthony n 888.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
K. Walker n 884
00/0
00/0
L. Ugochukwu n 870.8
00/0
0.21/0
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Aston Villa

Aston Villa Goalkeeper

Aston Villa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
E. Martínez41883601 min1162.9 /90451.1 /9010 /90
M. Bizot1283991 min474.3 /90111 /9000 /90
Aston Villa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 890
3.17/6
M. Bizot n 878.9
46/6

Aston Villa Defensive

Aston Villa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
E. Konsa44873810 min290.7 /90280.7 /90370.9 /901273 /90180.4 /9010 /90
M. Cash44823625 min812 /90310.8 /90150.4 /901724.3 /90491.2 /90100.2 /90
L. Digne38672560 min461.6 /90180.6 /9050.2 /901083.8 /90291 /9060.2 /90
Pau Torres32842682 min291 /90170.6 /90291 /90913.1 /90160.5 /9010 /90
I. Maatsen29691989 min472.1 /90160.7 /9020.1 /901115 /90160.7 /9030.1 /90
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Aston Villa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Rogers n 886.1
2.18/5
1.68/3
J. Anthony
O. Watkins n 876.4
1.27/1
1.26/2
—
E. Konsa n 890
0.11/0
0.85/1
K. Walker
M. Cash n 889.9
0.85/1
1.37/3
—
E. Buendía n 867.4
1.55/3
2.76/5
—
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Aston Villa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Rogers n 886.1
0.94/2
O. Watkins n 876.4
0.43/0
E. Konsa n 890
0.43/0
M. Cash n 889.9
2.56/6
E. Buendía n 867.4
2.37/5
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Aston Villa Attacking

Aston Villa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
O. Watkins50693454 min160.4 /9040.1 /90681.8 /90451.2 /90340.9 /90290.8 /90
D. Malen22461001 min50.4 /9020.2 /90282.5 /90141.3 /9080.7 /90161.4 /90
T. Abraham1040396 min20.5 /9010.2 /9040.9 /9030.7 /9071.6 /9000 /90
Alysson Edward22243 min00 /9000 /9012.1 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Rogers51844269 min120.3 /9090.2 /90761.6 /90430.9 /90721.5 /90661.4 /90
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Aston Villa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Rogers n 886.1
1.77/5
0.95/1
O. Watkins n 876.4
2.17/4
1.56/3
E. Konsa n 890
0.53/1
0.32/0
M. Cash n 889.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 867.4
1.86/3
0.73/1
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Aston Villa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Aston Villa before kick-off, to 7 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Rogers n 886.1
0.32/0
0.32/0
O. Watkins n 876.4
0.94/2
0.32/0
E. Konsa n 890
0.32/0
00/0
M. Cash n 889.9
00/0
0.11/0
E. Buendía n 867.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BurnleyAston Villa
34%Possession66%
1.79Expected goals (xG)1.44
15Shots18
6Shots on target7
4Shots off target6
5Blocked shots5
7Shots inside the box10
2Corners8
1Offsides1
18Fouls8
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
5Saves4
260Passes528
74%Pass accuracy86%

Burnley Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Weiß9000000007.2
K. Walker9000000407.2
A. Tuanzebe9000000106.3
M. Estève9000000006.3
Lucas Pires9000001106.7
L. Tchaouna9000112307
Florentino8700102106.3
J. Anthony8710220206.7
L. Ugochukwu7900111207.2
Z. Flemming79103104Y7
H. Mejbri6901004207.3
L. Foster sub2100000006.2
J. Laurent sub1100000106.3
Zeki Amdouni sub1100210006.2
J. Ward-Prowse sub1000000006.6
J. Bruun Larsen sub1000001006.7

Aston Villa Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
E. Martínez9001001006.7
E. Konsa9000000107.3
T. Mings90000000Y6.3
Y. Tielemans9000210207.7
M. Rogers9000101205.6
O. Watkins9010110007.2
J. McGinn8501214006.7
M. Cash8000001005.6
R. Barkley8010421106.9
I. Maatsen7400101306.5
V. Lindelöf7400000006.5
L. Digne sub1600001107.3
E. Buendía sub1600110007
L. Bailey sub1200002106.6
Douglas Luiz sub1000110107
L. Bogarde sub1000000106.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Burnley v Aston Villa — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BurnleyLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.6 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Aston VillaWLLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Burnley 1 · 1 draw · Aston Villa 4 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2025-10-05 Aston Villa 2–1 Burnley
  • 2023-12-30 Aston Villa 3–2 Burnley
  • 2023-08-27 Burnley 1–3 Aston Villa
  • 2022-05-19 Aston Villa 1–1 Burnley
  • 2022-05-07 Burnley 1–3 Aston Villa
  • 2021-01-27 Burnley 3–2 Aston Villa
League standing · 2025/26
Burnley#19 pos22 pts38 pl-37 GD
Aston Villa#4 pos65 pts38 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Burnley scored1
Aston Villa scored1.47
Burnley conceded1.97
Aston Villa conceded1.29

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Burnley 1.72 xG from 15 shots, Aston Villa 1.75 from 18. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Ross Barkley 32' · 0.59 xGZian Flemming 53' · 0.47 xGZian Flemming 27' · 0.30 xGJohn McGinn 75' · 0.24 xGJaidon Anthony 54' · 0.12 xGMorgan Rogers 2' · 0.11 xGZeki Amdouni 94' · 0.10 xGZian Flemming 10' · 0.09 xGOllie Watkins 5' · 0.08 xGJohn McGinn 74' · 0.07 xGRoss Barkley 35' · 0.06 xGEmiliano Buendía 92' · 0.05 xGDouglas Luiz 95' · 0.05 xGIan Maatsen 16' · 0.04 xGJohn McGinn 48' · 0.04 xGHannibal Mejbri 44' · 0.03 xGYouri Tielemans 34' · 0.03 xGZian Flemming 62' · 0.03 xGYouri Tielemans 37' · 0.03 xGLoum Tchaouna 62' · 0.02 xGFlorentino Luís 45' · 0.02 xGRoss Barkley 40' · 0.02 xGChimuanya Ugochukwu 7' · 0.02 xGMorgan Rogers 15' · 0.02 xGZeki Amdouni 83' · 0.02 xGYouri Tielemans 65' · 0.02 xGLoum Tchaouna 62' · 0.01 xGLoum Tchaouna 10' · 0.01 xGJohn McGinn 35' · 0.01 xGJaidon Anthony 7' · 0.38 xG · goalOllie Watkins 55' · 0.29 xG · goalZian Flemming 58' · 0.09 xG · goalRoss Barkley 41' · 0.03 xG · goal
Burnley (attacking right)Aston Villa (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Burnley1521.72
Aston Villa1821.75

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Burnley 0.85, Aston Villa 1.01. At full time, xG was level: Burnley 1.72, Aston Villa 1.75. The widest gap was 0.55 xG to Burnley, in the 27th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.80.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Burnley 7 minGoal - Aston Villa 41 minGoal - Aston Villa 55 minGoal - Burnley 58 min
Burnley 1.72 xGAston Villa 1.75 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Burnley v Aston Villa?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Burnley v Aston Villa was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Aston Villa?
In their last 6 meetings, Burnley won 1, Aston Villa won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Burnley and Aston Villa?
Recent form — Burnley 0W 0D 5L; Aston Villa 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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