AroucaEstrela

Arouca v Estrela result

Full-time · Arouca 1–0 Estrela

Primeira Liga · · Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arouca · Estrela · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arouca 1–0 Estrela — Arouca won this Primeira Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,935 of 2,588 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Arouca beat Estrela 1–0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 11 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Estrela out-shot Arouca 11 to 7 and created the better chances, 1.45 xG to 0.74 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Context.

The goals

Arouca led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Arouca: Barbero (5’, assisted by Näis Djouahra).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Barbero’s goal on 5 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Arouca: Pablo Gozálbez (45+6’), Barbero (45+8’), Pedro Santos (62’), Taichi Fukui (80’) and José Fontán (88’); Estrela: A. Marcus (45+8’) and M. Scholze (50’).

What it changes

Arouca stay fifth after this result (eight league matches played). Arouca have scored 11 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games, ranked per game). Arouca have conceded seven goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Estrela move down from eighth to ninth (eight league matches played). Estrela have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games, ranked per game). Estrela have conceded 15 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Estrela are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Näis Djouahra (Arouca) 5.4, Santiago Serra (Estrela) 4.5 and I. de Arruabarrena (Arouca) 4.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Arouca or Estrela (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Arouca next host Rio Ave on 28 November 2026.

Estrela next host Benfica on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arouca: Arouca v Rio Ave, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Estrela: Estrela v Benfica, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arouca 1–0 Estrela · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca · Arouca
  • Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arouca 3 · draws 1 · Estrela 2 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arouca 1W 2D 2L · Estrela 2W 2D 1L

Arouca 1–0 Estrela (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 25 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2
Goals
against 1 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 3.63
Corners
against 5.38 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 4.5
Shots on target
against 4.5 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.88 / 2.88
Cards
against 3 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameArouca for / againstLineEstrela for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1 against n 8
2.5our book
2 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
3.13 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.63 for · 4.63 against n 8
Shots
11.63 for · 14.38 against n 8
19.5standard
12.25 for · 11.88 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 4.5 against n 8
8.5standard
4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.63 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 12.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.88 for · 3 against n 8
3.5standard
2.88 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe.

Arouca

Arouca Goalkeeper

Arouca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
I. de Arruabarrena790630 min273.9 /9050.7 /9000 /90
Arouca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
3.55/5

Arouca Defensive

Arouca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
José Fontán790630 min111.6 /9071 /90121.7 /90253.6 /9050.7 /9010.1 /90
Tiago Esgaio790628 min111.6 /9081.1 /9020.3 /90284 /9071 /9000 /90
O. Lebedenko779556 min162.6 /9071.1 /9020.3 /90294.7 /90111.8 /9010.2 /90
Javi Sánchez687519 min61 /90111.9 /9050.9 /90172.9 /9020.3 /9030.5 /90
B. Popović19090 min11 /9011 /9011 /9044 /9000 /9000 /90
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Arouca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
José Fontán n 890
0.96/1
0.62/2
Rafa Soares
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
0.84/2
—
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
0.95/2
0.65/0
Rafa Soares
T. Fukui n 887.3
14/3
1.76/5
—
N. Djouahra n 883.5
0.11/0
0.11/0
L. Zvonarek
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Arouca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
José Fontán n 890
1.58/3
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
1.97/5
T. Fukui n 887.3
1.87/5
N. Djouahra n 883.5
0.84/1
O. Lebedenko n 779.4
2.67/4
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Arouca Attacking

Arouca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Barbero772507 min40.7 /9000 /90152.7 /9091.6 /9010.2 /9020.4 /90
D. Nandín524119 min10.8 /9000 /9043 /9021.5 /9000 /9032.3 /90
B. Mansilla41977 min00 /9000 /9011.2 /9000 /9033.5 /9022.3 /90
G. Rukavina23467 min00 /9000 /9011.3 /9011.3 /9000 /9000 /90
T. Fukui788619 min00 /9000 /9081.2 /9030.4 /90121.7 /9030.4 /90
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Arouca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
José Fontán n 890
0.42/1
0.42/1
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
00/0
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
0.54/0
00/0
T. Fukui n 887.3
1.36/3
0.53/1
N. Djouahra n 883.5
1.67/3
0.32/0
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Arouca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arouca before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
José Fontán n 890
0.32/0
00/0
I. de Arruabarrena n 890
00/0
00/0
Tiago Esgaio n 889.8
00/0
0.11/0
T. Fukui n 887.3
0.11/0
00/0
N. Djouahra n 883.5
00/0
0.53/1
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Léo Linck790630 min213 /90101.4 /9000 /90
Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Léo Linck n 790
37/4

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Rafa Soares790629 min91.3 /9030.4 /9010.1 /90131.9 /9020.3 /9000 /90
M. Scholze775522 min284.8 /9081.4 /9010.2 /90335.7 /9030.5 /9020.3 /90
Luan Patrick690540 min152.5 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90203.3 /9010.2 /9010.2 /90
S. Leković690540 min61 /9040.7 /9040.7 /90264.3 /9050.8 /9020.3 /90
Jefferson Encada33398 min32.8 /9010.9 /9000 /9087.3 /9021.8 /9000 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Léo Linck n 790
00/0
0.32/0
—
Rafa Soares n 789.9
0.32/0
00/0
Tiago Esgaio
L. Antonetti n 880.6
1.76/3
1.47/3
—
A. Marcus n 889
0.85/1
1.35/3
—
L. Zvonarek n 786.1
1.37/2
1.65/4
N. Djouahra
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rafa Soares n 789.9
1.36/2
L. Antonetti n 880.6
1.75/4
A. Marcus n 889
15/2
L. Zvonarek n 786.1
1.36/3
Eddy Doue n 878.1
2.77/5
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Antonetti789623 min40.6 /9010.1 /90213 /9071 /9040.6 /9030.4 /90
A. Marcus789623 min40.6 /9010.1 /90162.3 /90101.4 /90121.7 /90131.9 /90
L. Zvonarek786603 min00 /9000 /9060.9 /9010.1 /9081.2 /9020.3 /90
Eddy Doue780557 min00 /9030.5 /9010.2 /9010.2 /9081.3 /9081.3 /90
I. Stoica770491 min40.7 /9020.4 /90101.8 /9061.1 /9091.6 /9071.3 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Linck n 790
00/0
00/0
Rafa Soares n 789.9
0.11/0
00/0
L. Antonetti n 880.6
2.97/5
15/1
A. Marcus n 889
2.18/7
1.47/4
L. Zvonarek n 786.1
0.94/2
0.11/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Léo Linck n 790
00/0
00/0
Rafa Soares n 789.9
00/0
0.31/1
L. Antonetti n 880.6
0.64/0
0.11/0
A. Marcus n 889
0.53/1
0.11/0
L. Zvonarek n 786.1
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AroucaEstrela
37%Possession63%
0.74Expected goals (xG)1.45
7Shots11
3Shots on target2
2Shots off target7
2Blocked shots2
5Shots inside the box6
5Corners6
2Offsides3
10Fouls7
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves2
338Passes578

Arouca Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Tiago Esgaio9000110106.5
I. de Arruabarrena9000000006.7
E. van Ee9000000206.4
O. Lebedenko9000001106.4
José Fontán90000001Y7.2
Javi Sánchez9000000007.5
A. Trezza7900200306.6
T. Fukui79000011Y6.8
Barbero65101100Y7.5
N. Djouahra6501101207.7
Pablo Gozálbez57000003Y7
Pedro Santos33000003Y6.7
G. Rukavina2500002006.9
D. Nandín2500110006.4
B. Mansilla1100100206.6
Lee Hyun-Ju1100000006.8

Estrela Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Antonetti9000001006.3
A. Marcus90001001Y5.9
Rafa Soares9000001006
Patrick Luan9000000107.2
S. Leković9000100106.9
Léo Linck9000000006.5
L. Zvonarek8900100006.7
Santiago Serra8900311206.8
Eddy Doue8200111106.6
M. Scholze62000020Y6.1
I. Stoica6100400106.2
B. Souza2900000006.2
Jefferson Encada2800000006.4
E. Pedro Vanga800000006.3
K. Höög Jansson100000000
Alisson100000000

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arouca v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AroucaLWDLD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
EstrelaWDWDL
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arouca 3 · 1 draw · Estrela 2 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2026-04-19 Arouca 1–0 Estrela
  • 2025-12-07 Estrela 3–1 Arouca
  • 2025-04-19 Arouca 1–0 Estrela
  • 2024-12-09 Estrela 2–1 Arouca
  • 2024-05-05 Arouca 0–0 Estrela
  • 2023-12-28 Estrela 1–4 Arouca
League standing · 2026/27
Arouca#5 pos20 pts11 pl+5 GD
Estrela#12 pos10 pts10 pl-4 GD
Goals per game
Arouca scored1.18
Estrela scored1.5
Arouca conceded0.73
Estrela conceded1.9

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arouca v Estrela?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arouca v Estrela was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estrela?
In their last 6 meetings, Arouca won 3, Estrela won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arouca and Estrela?
Recent form — Arouca 1W 2D 2L; Estrela 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

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