Flamengo v Fluminense result

Full-time · Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense

Serie A – Brazil · · Estádio do Maracanã

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Flamengo · Fluminense · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense — Flamengo won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.80 at Bet365
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Flamengo beat Fluminense 1–0 at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 11 October.

Flamengo are unbeaten in their last nine matches.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Flamengo: Jorge Carrascal (65’, assisted by Lucas Paquetá).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jorge Carrascal’s goal on 65 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Flamengo 1.65, Fluminense 0.65, from 17 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Flamengo: E. Pulgar (31’), S. Niguez (49’) and J. Freitas (90+5’); Fluminense: L. Acosta (39’), A. Canobbio (57’), Ignacio (83’) and Guilherme Arana (87’).

What it changes

Flamengo stay first after this result (30 league matches played). Flamengo have scored in 15 consecutive matches — every result checked.

Fluminense stay third after this result (30 league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Lucas Paquetá (Flamengo) 7.1, Nonato (Fluminense) 6.1 and Jorge Carrascal (Flamengo) 5.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Flamengo next travel to Bahia on 18 October 2026.

Fluminense next host Santos on 18 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Flamengo: Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Fluminense: Fluminense v Santos, Sunday 18 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense · Serie A – Brazil
  • Venue: Estádio do Maracanã · Rio de Janeiro
  • Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Flamengo 3 · draws 1 · Fluminense 2 · 2 goals/game
  • Recent form: Flamengo 3W 2D 0L · Fluminense 3W 0D 2L

Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 2.13
Goals
against 0.63 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
7.25 / 3.5
Corners
against 5 / 6.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 5.38
Shots on target
against 3 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 2.25
Cards
against 2.75 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameFlamengo for / againstLineFluminense for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 0.63 against n 8
2.75our book
2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
7.25 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
3.5 for · 6.63 against n 8
Shots
15.25 for · 11.13 against n 8
19.5standard
11.5 for · 13.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.25 for · 3 against n 8
8.5standard
5.38 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 10.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.5 for · 13.25 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2 against n 8

Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein.

Flamengo
Flamengo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Bruno Henrique n 833
2.76/2
3.47/3
—
Alex Sandro n 849.1
2.56/4
0.72/1
—
Everton n 835
2.34/2
1.93/2
—
Luiz Araujo n 838.4
2.14/3
1.22/1
—
E. Pulgar n 871.5
1.95/4
0.32/0
—
Flamengo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Everton n 835
3.24/3
12/1
Pedro n 858.4
2.76/3
1.55/2
Samuel Lino n 863.9
2.65/5
1.44/4
N. de la Cruz n 826.1
2.64/1
1.73/1
Bruno Henrique n 833
2.43/2
1.43/1
Flamengo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Jorge Carrascal n 854.4
0.42/0
0.84/0
Pedro n 858.4
0.42/0
0.63/0
Anthony Valencia n 843.6
13/1
00/0
G. de Arrascaeta n 861.5
0.42/0
0.42/0
Samuel Lino n 863.9
0.52/1
0.21/0
Flamengo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luiz Araujo n 838.4
3.85/5
Lucas Paquetá n 863.9
3.26/5
G. Plata n 849
37/4
Samuel Lino n 863.9
2.66/6
Anthony Valencia n 843.6
2.66/3
Flamengo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Rossi n 890.6
2.56/4
Fluminense
Fluminense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
3.15/0
3.15/0
—
R. Castillo n 838.5
2.93/3
1.84/2
—
A. Canobbio n 874.6
2.37/4
2.98/5
—
Otavio n 843.1
2.15/2
0.52/0
—
Julio Fidelis n 846
25/2
2.94/4
—
Fluminense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Hulk n 882.3
3.38/6
1.98/4
Jefferson Savarino n 840.8
34/2
1.93/1
L. Acosta n 834.5
2.64/2
12/1
Guilherme Arana n 853.3
1.94/4
0.63/0
K. Serna n 852.8
1.54/1
1.34/1
Fluminense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hulk n 882.3
0.74/1
0.54/0
L. Acosta n 834.5
0.72/0
0.31/0
K. Serna n 852.8
0.42/0
0.42/0
Jefferson Savarino n 840.8
0.81/1
00/0
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
00/0
0.61/0
Fluminense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Riquelme Felipe n 817.9
3.14/1
Guga n 888.8
37/4
Julio Fidelis n 846
2.96/2
Rene n 890.8
2.67/5
A. Canobbio n 874.6
2.17/5
Fluminense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 9 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Fabio n 891.6
3.15/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
FlamengoFluminense
43%Possession57%
1.65Expected goals (xG)0.65
17Shots11
6Shots on target3
7Shots off target4
4Blocked shots4
8Shots inside the box6
4Corners2
21Fouls18
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
3Saves5
426Passes559
89%Pass accuracy89%

Flamengo player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Rossi9000000008.3
Leo Pereira9000000106.9
Alex Sandro9000000407.2
G. Varela9000000006.3
Leo Ortiz9000110107.9
E. Pulgar90002004Y7.3
Jorge Carrascal8910213007.9
Lucas Paquetá7901224107.2
Samuel Lino7900221308.5
S. Niguez64001020Y6.5
Pedro6400200105.9
Bruno Henrique sub2600000006.5
J. Freitas sub26001001Y6.5
N. de la Cruz sub1100000206.9
G. Plata sub1100000007
Danilo sub1000000006.7

Fluminense player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Fabio9000000007.2
Samuel Xavier9000000206.6
Ignacio90000000Y6.2
J. Millan9000000607
Guilherme Arana90000012Y7.3
Nonato9000000507.3
Martinelli7800210107.3
A. Canobbio69000011Y7.3
R. Castillo6900210106.6
L. Acosta60000030Y6.9
Yeferson Soteldo6000000106.7
Wesley Nata1200000005.9
PH Ganso sub3000001006.9
K. Serna sub3000110006.6
Jefferson Savarino sub2100000106.6
Hulk sub2100200006.5
Wesley Natã sub1200000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Flamengo v Fluminense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
FlamengoWWDWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
FluminenseWLLWW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Flamengo 3 · 1 draw · Fluminense 2 · 2 goals/game
  • 2026-04-12 Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo
  • 2025-11-20 Fluminense 2–1 Flamengo
  • 2025-07-20 Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense
  • 2024-10-17 Flamengo 0–2 Fluminense
  • 2024-06-23 Fluminense 0–1 Flamengo
  • 2023-11-11 Flamengo 1–1 Fluminense
League standing · 2026
Flamengo#1 pos64 pts30 pl+33 GD
Fluminense#4 pos51 pts30 pl+11 GD
Goals per game
Flamengo scored1.93
Fluminense scored1.6
Flamengo conceded0.83
Fluminense conceded1.23

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Flamengo v Fluminense was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.80 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fluminense?
In their last 6 meetings, Flamengo won 3, Fluminense won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Flamengo and Fluminense?
Recent form — Flamengo 3W 2D 0L; Fluminense 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s boards

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