ModenaAvellino

Modena v Avellino result

Full-time · Modena 0–1 Avellino

Serie B – Italy · · Stadio Alberto Braglia

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Modena · Avellino

The model’s pre-match pick

Modena 0–1 Avellino — Avellino won this Serie B – Italy match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.73 at Betvictor
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.2% of 145 landed (95% range 47–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Avellino won 1–0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B – Italy on Sunday 6 September. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Modena out-shot Avellino 43 to 6 and created the better chances, 1.91 xG to 0.46 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Avellino led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Avellino: M. Besaggio (8’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with M. Besaggio’s goal on 8 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Modena: F. Zampano (34’), G. Ambrosino (76’) and K. Bozhanaj (87’); Avellino: L. Šimić (38’) and T. Martinelli (90’).

What it changes

Modena have scored 18 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Modena have conceded 10 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Avellino have scored 15 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games). Avellino have conceded 10 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Bryant Nieling (Modena) 6.3, T. Martinelli (Avellino) 6.2 and G. Olzer (Modena) 4.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Modena next travel to Virtus Entella on 8 November 2026.

Avellino next travel to Benevento on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Modena: Virtus Entella v Modena, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Avellino: Benevento v Avellino, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Modena 0–1 Avellino · Serie B – Italy
  • Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia · Modena
  • Referee: Maco Di Loreto, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 2): Modena 0 · draws 1 · Avellino 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Modena 2W 0D 3L · Avellino 2W 0D 3L

Modena 0–1 Avellino (Serie B – Italy): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 20 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 3.75
Corners
against 6.38 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 5.25 / 4 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.38 / 1.75
Cards
against 1.75 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameModena for / againstLineAvellino for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5our book
1.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
2.38 for · 6.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.75 for · 4.75 against n 8
Shots
11.75 for · 14.63 against n 8
19.5standard
10.13 for · 14.75 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 5.25 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.5 for · 13.75 against n 8
21.5standard
14.38 for · 16.38 against n 8
Cards shown
2.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Maco Di Loreto, Italy.

Modena

Modena Goalkeeper

Modena — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Chichizola390270 min103.3 /9041.3 /9000 /90
Modena — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Modena before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Chichizola n 890
2.86/2

Modena Defensive

Modena — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Bryant Nieling390270 min41.3 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9082.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90
D. Tonoli390270 min51.7 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90124 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
S. Nador390270 min41.3 /9062 /9041.3 /90103.3 /9020.7 /9000 /90
F. Zampano389267 min51.7 /9000 /9000 /90124 /9010.3 /9000 /90
G. Brugman379236 min20.8 /9041.5 /9010.4 /9083.1 /9010.4 /9000 /90
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Modena — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Modena before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Bryant Nieling n 884.4
1.26/2
0.32/0
L. Šimić
D. Tonoli n 878.8
1.15/2
0.74/1
L. Šimić
S. Nador n 890.8
0.95/2
0.64/1
L. Šimić
L. Chichizola n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
F. Zampano n 874.9
1.26/2
1.26/2
A. Izzo
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Modena — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Modena before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Bryant Nieling n 884.4
27/5
S. Nador n 890.8
1.97/4
D. Tonoli n 878.8
1.44/4
F. Zampano n 874.9
1.15/2
G. Ambrosino n 879.4
0.42/1
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Modena Attacking

Modena — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
G. Ambrosino383250 min20.7 /9020.7 /9041.4 /9020.7 /9051.8 /9010.4 /90
G. Olzer275149 min21.2 /9000 /9053 /9042.4 /9000 /9021.2 /90
Stênio22243 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012.1 /90
G. Brugman379236 min00 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /9041.5 /9031.1 /90
G. Caso371214 min20.8 /9010.4 /9041.7 /9031.3 /9041.7 /9031.3 /90
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Modena — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Modena before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Tonoli n 878.8
14/3
0.11/0
Bryant Nieling n 884.4
0.32/0
00/0
S. Nador n 890.8
0.21/1
0.21/1
L. Chichizola n 890
00/0
00/0
F. Zampano n 874.9
0.53/0
0.32/0
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Modena — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Modena before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Nador n 890.8
00/0
00/0
L. Chichizola n 890
00/0
00/0
Bryant Nieling n 884.4
00/0
00/0
D. Tonoli n 878.8
00/0
00/0
F. Zampano n 874.9
0.21/0
00/0
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Avellino

Avellino Goalkeeper

Avellino — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
T. Martinelli390270 min62 /9051.7 /9000 /90
Avellino — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Avellino before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Martinelli n 390
22/1

Avellino Defensive

Avellino — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Izzo390270 min51.7 /9020.7 /9020.7 /90155 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
T. Cancellotti390270 min41.3 /9010.3 /9031 /90113.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90
L. Šimić384253 min51.8 /90124.3 /9082.8 /90279.6 /9020.7 /9010.4 /90
B. Moruzzi381244 min114.1 /9010.4 /9010.4 /90197 /9041.5 /9010.4 /90
P. Enrici19090 min22 /9022 /9000 /9088 /9000 /9000 /90
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Avellino — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Avellino before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Cancellotti n 885.6
1.47/3
0.96/1
—
A. Izzo n 890
0.94/2
1.57/4
F. Zampano
T. Martinelli n 390
00/0
00/0
—
R. Russo n 880.1
1.88/3
1.47/1
—
L. Šimić n 887.9
0.95/2
0.95/2
S. Nador
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Avellino — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Avellino before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Cancellotti n 885.6
1.67/4
A. Izzo n 890
1.36/3
R. Russo n 880.1
1.86/3
L. Šimić n 887.9
2.48/5
B. Moruzzi n 381.3
4.13/2
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Avellino Attacking

Avellino — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Favilli359177 min00 /9031.5 /9021 /9010.5 /9031.5 /9000 /90
D. Fila15555 min00 /9000 /9023.3 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
L. Pandolfi13535 min00 /9000 /9025.1 /9025.1 /9000 /9000 /90
W. Cheddira12626 min00 /9000 /9013.5 /9013.5 /9000 /9000 /90
R. Russo386257 min20.7 /9000 /9051.8 /9020.7 /9072.5 /9051.8 /90
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Avellino — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Avellino before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Izzo n 890
0.32/0
0.32/0
T. Cancellotti n 885.6
0.11/0
00/0
T. Martinelli n 390
00/0
00/0
R. Russo n 880.1
1.77/2
0.75/0
L. Šimić n 887.9
0.32/0
00/0
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Avellino — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Avellino before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Izzo n 890
00/0
0.11/0
T. Martinelli n 390
00/0
00/0
T. Cancellotti n 885.6
00/0
00/0
R. Russo n 880.1
0.32/0
00/0
L. Šimić n 887.9
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ModenaAvellino
62%Possession38%
1.91Expected goals (xG)0.46
43Shots6
10Shots on target2
20Shots off target3
13Blocked shots1
24Shots inside the box3
12Corners2
17Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves10
499Passes317
92%Pass accuracy76%

Modena Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Chichizola9000000006.3
D. Tonoli9000103206.3
Bryant Nieling9000314307.3
A. Bianco9000204107.5
G. Olzer9000104206.6
G. Ambrosino90007260Y6.7
S. Nador8600000307.7
S. Santoro8600512207.2
G. Caso7700303008.2
G. Brugman6300116207.9
F. Zampano45003221Y6.3
Paulo Azzi sub4500110006.7
L. Bacchin sub2700000006.6
D. Montevago sub1300320106.3
F. Folino sub1300001006.7
K. Bozhanaj sub13000000Y6.6

Avellino Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
T. Martinelli90000000Y9.3
A. Izzo9000000107.2
P. Enrici9000000307.2
B. Moruzzi9000201306.6
M. Palumbo9000100207.2
R. Russo9000002206.9
L. Di Maggio7700001206.9
M. Besaggio6510111007.7
L. Šimić45000001Y6.9
F. Missori4500000006.7
A. Favilli1900000006.3
W. Cheddira sub7100110006.7
T. Cancellotti sub4500000306.9
Michael Venturi sub4500000107.2
D. Sounas sub2500000106.3
Thomas Berenbruch sub1300000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Modena v Avellino — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ModenaLLLWW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
AvellinoWLLLW
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 2
Modena 0 · 1 draw · Avellino 1 · 1.5 goals/game
  • 2026-05-08 Avellino 1–0 Modena
  • 2025-08-31 Modena 1–1 Avellino
League standing · 2026/27
Modena#2 pos20 pts10 pl+8 GD
Avellino#5 pos15 pts10 pl+5 GD
Goals per game
Modena scored1.8
Avellino scored1.5
Modena conceded1
Avellino conceded1

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Modena v Avellino?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Modena v Avellino was Under 2.5 goals (best price 1.73 at Betvictor).
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Avellino?
In their last 2 meetings, Modena won 0, Avellino won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Modena and Avellino?
Recent form — Modena 2W 0D 3L; Avellino 2W 0D 3L.

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