Free model picks
Bundesliga stats 2026/27
3 Bundesliga fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT). 3 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Bayern München lead the table on 21 points after 9 games, level with Borussia Dortmund.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming Bundesliga fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.2% across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) — the full win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Our Bundesliga predictions put a free model pick on every German top-flight fixture in the next ten days: 3 fixtures as of today, alongside the best UK bookmaker price. Kick-offs are shown in UK time, and each pick joins the graded record after full time, losing ones included.
Key Facts
Figures as of
The Bundesliga’s top scorer is N. Füllkrug with nine goals, two goals ahead of P. Schick (this season so far).
Across 77 matches (this season so far), the Bundesliga has produced 3.55 goals per game.
This Round at a Glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: SC Freiburg v Union Berlin (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT) — the free pick is SC Freiburg to win.How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 181 of 269 times (67.3%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
- Closest call: 1899 Hoffenheim v FC Schalke 04 (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:30 GMT) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 555 of 863 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s three matches (from Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
Bundesliga Matchweek Predictions
FC Schalke 04 are winless in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
About TACTIX’s Bundesliga Predictions
For Bundesliga, TACTIX grades each upcoming fixture by how confident the model is, from Gold down to Bronze.
TACTIX processes each upcoming Bundesliga fixture and grades it Gold, Silver or Bronze by model confidence. The headline metric is deliberately calibration rather than raw accuracy — a flattering accuracy figure is easy to cherry-pick, whereas calibration shows whether the probabilities are honest, and we keep it in the open on the live scoreboard. Updated daily.
What the Data Says About Bundesliga
TACTIX lists three upcoming Bundesliga fixtures in the next ten days, three of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In Bundesliga specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 24 from 36, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 7 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
Three fixtures in the Bundesliga fall inside the next 10 days, starting with 1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:30 GMT). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 3 of the three fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro. Recent record: the free Bundesliga pick landed 24 of 36 over the last 30 days (each free pick graded as shown).
The table so far
Bayern München lead the Bundesliga on 21 points from nine games, level with Borussia Dortmund (this season so far). The Bundesliga is averaging 3.55 goals a game across 77 matches, this season so far. The scoring race: N. Füllkrug on nine goals, P. Schick on 7.
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Bundesliga at a Glance
Long-run averages the model fits for Bundesliga — the baseline every Bundesliga match starts from before team form.
Bundesliga Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 18 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 4 |
Current Bundesliga standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Model record · last 30 Days
How the free (Bronze) Bundesliga pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
Season Leaders
Top Scorers
- N. Füllkrug9 G
- P. Schick7 G
- M. Olise6 G
- P. Tietz6 G
- Y. Ebnoutalib6 G
Top Assists
- H. Kane8 A
- A. Nusa7 A
- M. Grüll6 A
- F. Rieder5 A
- A. Grønbæk4 A
How Are These Bundesliga Predictions Made?
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
Responsible Gambling
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — see our responsible-gambling policy (BeGambleAware, GamCare, GAMSTOP).
Bundesliga Player Stats
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Win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets for every fixture.