NantesMarseille

Nantes v Marseille result

Full-time · Nantes 3–0 Marseille

Ligue 1 ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Nantes · Marseille · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Nantes 3–0 Marseille — Nantes won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 549 of 855 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Nantes: 3.08 to 1.55 in expected goals, from 17 shots to 16, ahead on xG from the 19th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Nantes beat Marseille 3–0 in Ligue 1 on Saturday 2 May.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Nantes: I. Ganago (50’, assisted by Matthis Abline), R. Cabella (54’, assisted by I. Ganago) and Matthis Abline (58’, assisted by Mohamed Kaba).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with I. Ganago’s goal on 50 minutes.

Discipline

J. Pignard showed four yellow cards — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 12 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Nantes: Matthis Abline (17’); Marseille: Quinten Timber (31’), Ange Lago (49’) and Facundo Medina (81’).

What it changes

Nantes stay 17th after this result (32 league matches played).

Marseille stay sixth after this result (32 league matches played).

Marseille are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, I. Ganago (Nantes) 8.8, Matthis Abline (Nantes) 8.4 and R. Cabella (Nantes) 8.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.3% of the time in the last 90 days (352 of 515).

Next up

Nantes next travel to PAU on 7 November 2026.

Marseille next travel to Lens on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Nantes: PAU v Nantes, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Marseille: Lens v Marseille, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Nantes 3–0 Marseille · Ligue 1
  • Referee: J. Pignard
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Nantes 1 · draws 1 · Marseille 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Nantes 0W 3D 2L · Marseille 1W 1D 3L

Nantes 3–0 Marseille (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.5 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.25 · 0 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
4.63 / 6.57
Corners
against 4.5 / 2.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.38 / 5
Shots on target
against 4.25 / 2.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.13 / 2.57
Cards
against 2 / 1.71 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
4.33 yellows
Referee · J. Pignard
25.08 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 12 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameNantes for / againstLineMarseille for / against
Goals scored
0.5 for · 1.38 against n 8
3our book
1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.63 for · 4.5 against n 8
9.5standard
6.57 for · 2.29 against n 7
Shots
12.5 for · 11.13 against n 8
19.5standard
16.71 for · 8.57 against n 7
Shots on target
4.38 for · 4.25 against n 8
8.5standard
5 for · 2.86 against n 7
Fouls committed
13.13 for · 15.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.29 for · 10.43 against n 7
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
2.57 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: J. Pignard — 4.33 yellow cards a game, 0.5 red cards, 25.08 fouls over 12 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Nantes

Nantes Goalkeeper

Nantes — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Anthony Lopes31902789 min963.1 /90531.7 /9000 /90
P. Carlgren19090 min33 /9011 /9000 /90
Nantes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nantes before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Anthony Lopes n 890
2.96/5

Nantes Defensive

Nantes — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
N. Cozza26842196 min401.6 /90170.7 /9090.4 /901034.2 /90170.7 /9020.1 /90
K. Amian23892051 min281.2 /9080.4 /90100.4 /90833.6 /90251.1 /9040.2 /90
C. Awaziem23892041 min231 /90190.8 /90170.7 /90863.8 /90221 /9070.3 /90
T. Tati20861724 min191 /90170.9 /90150.8 /90542.8 /90231.2 /9050.3 /90
D. Machado1470975 min232.1 /9060.6 /9010.1 /90595.4 /90232.1 /9030.3 /90
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Nantes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nantes before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Anthony Lopes n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
M. Abline n 877.3
0.32/0
0.94/2
M. Greenwood
N. Cozza n 890
0.52/1
1.98/5
—
J. Lepenant n 887.9
1.37/2
1.57/5
P. Højbjerg
K. Amian n 887.6
1.47/4
0.86/0
—
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Nantes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nantes before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Abline n 877.3
0.11/0
N. Cozza n 890
2.15/5
J. Lepenant n 887.9
2.77/6
K. Amian n 887.6
0.53/1
C. Awaziem n 888.1
1.56/3
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Nantes Attacking

Nantes — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Abline30802402 min70.3 /9050.2 /90521.9 /90230.9 /90291.1 /90501.9 /90
Mostafa Mohamed19591119 min40.3 /9000 /90262.1 /9070.6 /9090.7 /9030.2 /90
Bahereba Guirassy1747798 min20.2 /9010.1 /90101.1 /9060.7 /9060.7 /9091 /90
Y. El-Arabi1563947 min30.3 /9010.1 /90121.1 /9090.9 /9090.9 /9070.7 /90
I. Ganago1161669 min20.3 /9000 /90121.6 /9060.8 /9040.5 /9050.7 /90
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Nantes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nantes before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Anthony Lopes n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Abline n 877.3
26/4
0.94/2
N. Cozza n 890
0.63/2
0.43/0
J. Lepenant n 887.9
0.65/0
0.43/0
K. Amian n 887.6
0.64/1
0.32/0
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Nantes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Nantes before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Anthony Lopes n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Abline n 877.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
N. Cozza n 890
00/0
0.11/0
J. Lepenant n 887.9
00/0
00/0
K. Amian n 887.6
00/0
00/0
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Marseille

Marseille Goalkeeper

Marseille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Rulli35903150 min1063 /90451.3 /9010 /90
J. de Lange790630 min172.4 /9030.4 /9000 /90
Marseille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Rulli n 890
2.15/3
J. de Lange n 890
2.45/3

Marseille Defensive

Marseille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
B. Pavard32802545 min381.3 /90361.3 /90150.5 /901124 /90321.1 /9070.2 /90
Emerson31792445 min511.9 /90361.3 /90100.4 /901084 /90240.9 /9050.2 /90
L. Balerdi29822378 min582.2 /90351.3 /90160.6 /901355.1 /90291.1 /9060.2 /90
N. Aguerd21881849 min321.6 /90361.8 /90110.5 /90874.2 /90271.3 /9060.3 /90
F. Medina21751575 min231.3 /90191.1 /9070.4 /90533 /90231.3 /9070.4 /90
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Marseille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Greenwood n 868.9
1.55/3
1.36/1
M. Abline
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.47/3
16/2
J. Lepenant
T. Weah n 883.5
1.17/1
0.74/1
—
Igor Paixão n 876.1
0.74/1
1.66/3
—
G. Rulli n 890
00/0
00/0
—
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Marseille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.9
0.73/1
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.56/3
T. Weah n 883.5
2.27/5
Igor Paixão n 876.1
1.36/3
P. Aubameyang n 885
0.32/0
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Marseille Attacking

Marseille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
P. Aubameyang35712490 min120.4 /9090.3 /90632.3 /90371.3 /90341.2 /90160.6 /90
A. Gouiri23621419 min100.6 /9050.3 /90342.2 /90211.3 /90322 /90181.1 /90
R. Vaz1038380 min40.9 /9020.5 /9071.7 /9051.2 /9061.4 /9010.2 /90
J. Rowe16363 min00 /9000 /9045.7 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Greenwood40783128 min230.7 /90100.3 /901093.1 /90682 /90782.2 /90641.8 /90
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Marseille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.9
4.48/7
2.37/4
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
1.36/4
0.54/0
T. Weah n 883.5
0.86/0
0.32/0
Igor Paixão n 876.1
1.96/3
0.94/1
G. Rulli n 890
0.11/0
00/0
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Marseille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Marseille before kick-off, to 26 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
M. Greenwood n 868.9
0.21/0
0.31/1
P. Højbjerg n 888.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
T. Weah n 883.5
00/0
00/0
Igor Paixão n 876.1
0.32/0
0.43/0
G. Rulli n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
NantesMarseille
42%Possession58%
3.42Expected goals (xG)1.36
17Shots16
6Shots on target8
6Shots off target4
5Blocked shots4
13Shots inside the box11
7Corners8
2Offsides1
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
8Saves2
327Passes454
80%Pass accuracy85%

Nantes Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Carlgren9000000009.9
C. Awaziem9000000307.7
N. Cozza9000000307.2
J. Lepenant9000002307
M. Abline90113230Y8.9
I. Ganago9011211008.2
F. Guilbert7900100407.7
I. Sissoko7900101006.9
M. Kaba6901111006.5
R. Cabella6910321307.5
D. Machado2600002006.6
M. Acapandié sub6400000006.7
F. Coquelin sub2100001006.9
Louis Leroux sub2100100507.2
U. Radaković sub1100000106.6
Ali Yousef Musrati sub1100000006.9

Marseille Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. de Lange9000000006.5
T. Nnadi9000000405.9
F. Medina90000011Y7.7
Emerson9000003206.2
P. Højbjerg9000100006.2
M. Greenwood9000421106.2
H. Traorè8900112106.5
L. Balerdi8800000306.3
A. Vermeeren6500001106.2
Q. Timber45000003Y6.7
P. Aubameyang4500110006.2
Igor Paixão sub4500211006.3
Ange Lago sub45002215Y7.2
A. Gouiri sub2500112006.7
Hilan Hamzaoui Slimani sub900000206.9
U. Lamare El Kadmiri sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Nantes v Marseille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
NantesDDDLL
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
MarseilleLLWLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Nantes 1 · 1 draw · Marseille 4 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-01-04 Marseille 0–2 Nantes
  • 2025-03-02 Marseille 2–0 Nantes
  • 2024-11-03 Nantes 1–2 Marseille
  • 2024-03-10 Marseille 2–0 Nantes
  • 2023-09-01 Nantes 1–1 Marseille
  • 2023-02-01 Nantes 0–2 Marseille
League standing · 2025/26
Nantes#17 pos23 pts33 pl-23 GD
Marseille#5 pos59 pts34 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Nantes scored0.88
Marseille scored1.85
Nantes conceded1.58
Marseille conceded1.32

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Nantes 3.08 xG from 17 shots, Marseille 1.55 from 16. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Matthis Abline 19' · 0.76 xGAnge Lago 47' · 0.50 xGMohamed Kaba 35' · 0.43 xGRémy Cabella 32' · 0.42 xGPierre-Emerick Aubameyang 40' · 0.36 xGMason Greenwood 47' · 0.12 xGMason Greenwood 84' · 0.12 xGRémy Cabella 31' · 0.11 xGLouis Leroux 74' · 0.09 xGChidozie Awaziem 46' · 0.08 xGNicolas Cozza 62' · 0.08 xGAmine Gouiri 65' · 0.08 xGIgnatius Ganago 39' · 0.07 xGChidozie Awaziem 63' · 0.07 xGIgnatius Ganago 45' · 0.06 xGIgor Paixão 71' · 0.05 xGMason Greenwood 18' · 0.05 xGMason Greenwood 13' · 0.04 xGNicolas Cozza 62' · 0.04 xGIgor Paixão 67' · 0.04 xGHamed Junior Traore 37' · 0.04 xGAnge Lago 81' · 0.04 xGHamed Junior Traore 90' · 0.04 xGMatthis Abline 36' · 0.03 xGPierre-Emile Højbjerg 66' · 0.02 xGIgor Paixão 77' · 0.02 xGFrederic Guilbert 36' · 0.02 xGIbrahima Sissoko 3' · 0.01 xGMason Greenwood 72' · 0.01 xGMason Greenwood 88' · 0.01 xGRémy Cabella 53' · 0.40 xG · goalMatthis Abline 57' · 0.30 xG · goalIgnatius Ganago 49' · 0.10 xG · goal
Nantes (attacking right)Marseille (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Nantes1733.08
Marseille1601.55

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Nantes led on xG, 1.91 to 0.49. At full time, Nantes led on xG, 3.08 to 1.55. The widest gap was 1.87 xG to Nantes, in the 63rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
3.11.500′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Nantes 49 minGoal - Nantes 53 minGoal - Nantes 57 min
Nantes 3.08 xGMarseille 1.55 xGdots = goals · 33 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Nantes v Marseille?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Nantes v Marseille was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Marseille?
In their last 6 meetings, Nantes won 1, Marseille won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Nantes and Marseille?
Recent form — Nantes 0W 3D 2L; Marseille 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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