Free model picks
Premier League stats 2026/27: the model's view of every fixture
5 Premier League fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Brighton v Brentford (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT). 5 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Arsenal lead the table on 24 points after 9 games, 3 points clear of Manchester City.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming Premier League fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.2% across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) — the full win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Our Premier League predictions cover every fixture in the next ten days: 5 fixtures as of today, each with a free model pick for the likeliest outcome and the best UK bookmaker price we can find. Each pick is a calibrated probability rather than a tip, and it is graded in public after full time, win or lose.
Key Facts
Figures as of
The Premier League’s top scorer is E. Haaland with nine goals, three goals ahead of A. Isak (this season so far).
Across 92 matches (this season so far), the Premier League has produced 2.70 goals per game.
This Round at a Glance
- Closest call: Sunderland v Chelsea (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Manchester United v Aston Villa (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 16:30 GMT) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: Ipswich v Bournemouth (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 552 of 859 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s five matches (from Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
Premier League Matchweek Predictions
Brentford have scored in their last 14 (all competitions we cover)
Bournemouth have scored in their last 8 (all competitions we cover)
About TACTIX’s Premier League Predictions
TACTIX publishes calibrated Premier League predictions for every upcoming fixture.
TACTIX runs every upcoming Premier League fixture through its model and grades each one by confidence — Gold, Silver or Bronze. Rather than headline a single flattering accuracy figure, TACTIX leads with calibration — how closely predicted probabilities track real results — measured in the open and refreshed continuously on the live scoreboard.
More on Premier League and Championship predictions and predicted tables
What the Data Says About Premier League
TACTIX lists five upcoming Premier League fixtures in the next ten days, five of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In Premier League specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 22 from 39, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 7 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
Five fixtures in the Premier League fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Brighton v Brentford (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 14:00 GMT). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 5 of the five fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro. Recent record: the free Premier League pick landed 22 of 39 over the last 30 days (each free pick graded as shown).
The table so far
Arsenal lead the Premier League on 24 points from nine games, three points clear of Manchester City (this season so far). The Premier League is averaging 2.70 goals a game across 92 matches, this season so far. The scoring race: E. Haaland on nine goals, A. Isak on 6.
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Premier League at a Glance
Long-run averages the model fits for Premier League — the baseline every Premier League match starts from before team form.
Premier League Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 | Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Current Premier League standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Model record · last 30 Days
How the free (Bronze) Premier League pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
Season Leaders
Top Scorers
- E. Haaland9 G
- A. Isak6 G
- T. Barry6 G
- João Pedro5 G
- M. Rogers5 G
Top Assists
- Declan Rice5 A
- Evanilson4 A
- P. Groß4 A
- A. Semenyo3 A
- Ben White3 A
How Are These Premier League Predictions Made?
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
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Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — see our responsible-gambling policy (BeGambleAware, GamCare, GAMSTOP).
Premier League Player Stats
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See the Full Forecast
Win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets for every fixture.