Free model picks
Serie A stats 2026/27
7 Serie A fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Parma v Bologna (Sat, 07 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). 7 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Lazio lead the table on 28 points after 10 games, 3 points clear of Inter. Gustavo Varela leads the scorers with 9 goals.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming Serie A fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.2% across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) — the full win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
Our Serie A predictions cover the Italian top flight fixture by fixture: 7 fixtures in the next ten days as of today, each with a free model pick and the best UK price. The pick is the outcome the model rates most likely, stated as a probability, and it is graded in public once the match is over.
This Round at a Glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: AS Roma v Sassuolo (Sat, 07 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the free pick is AS Roma to win.How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 180 of 268 times (67.2%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
- Closest call: Napoli v Lazio (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 11:30 GMT) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Fiorentina v Juventus (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: Inter v Como (Sun, 08 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 552 of 859 times (64.3%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s six matches (from Sat, 07 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
Bologna have scored in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
AS Roma have scored in their last 7 (all competitions we cover)
Lazio are unbeaten in their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
Monza have scored in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Inter have scored in their last 26 (all competitions we cover)
Fiorentina have scored in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
About TACTIX’s Serie A Predictions
Every Serie A fixture on the calendar is modelled by TACTIX and given a confidence grade — Gold, Silver or Bronze.
TACTIX deliberately leads with calibration rather than a single accuracy headline: the test is whether a stated probability actually holds up over time, and that is published openly on the live scoreboard, misses included. New grades land daily.
What the Data Says About Serie A
TACTIX lists seven upcoming Serie A fixtures in the next ten days, seven of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In Serie A specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 38 from 50, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 7 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
Seven fixtures in Serie A fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Parma v Bologna (Sat, 07 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 7 of the seven fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro. Recent record: the free Serie A pick landed 38 of 50 over the last 30 days (each free pick graded as shown).
The table so far
Lazio lead Serie A on 28 points from 10 games, three points clear of Inter (this season so far). Serie A is averaging 3.15 goals a game across 103 matches, this season so far. The scoring race: Gustavo Varela on nine goals, A. Raimondo on 8.
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Serie A at a Glance
Long-run averages the model fits for Serie A — the baseline every Serie A match starts from before team form.
Serie A Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 | Inter | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 24 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Bologna | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Current Serie A standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Model record · last 30 Days
How the free (Bronze) Serie A pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
Season Leaders
Top Scorers
- Gustavo Varela9 G
- A. Raimondo8 G
- D. Malen8 G
- N. Krstović6 G
- A. Rabiot5 G
Top Assists
- Juan Miranda5 A
- M. Zaccagni5 A
- Andy Diouf4 A
- F. Ghedjemis4 A
- G. Kvernadze4 A
How Are These Serie A Predictions Made?
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
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Serie A Player Stats
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Win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets for every fixture.